Saturday, October 30, 2010

Liberty Phosphates Limited - IMMEDIATE BUY

                         To all my readers, it’s time to make merry !! Few of my previous calls have come out with flying colors making new highs on the charts this week. Simran farms(82 peak), Manjushree Technopack (102 peak) & Rama Phosphates(123 peak) are just to name a few. Please do remain invested as these are bound to rise as time passes on.
Now coming back on Liberty Phosphates -----
Business : Contrary to my practice, I am forced to repeat another bigshot fertilizer player – LIBERTY PHOSPATES LIMITED because of it repetitive prolific Q results. Breaking news !! Liberty Phosphates is repeatedly getting listed on “ET 100 fastest growing small companies” in 2009 and now in year 2010 too. With a sound track of over 4 decades, Liberty Phosphates, manufactures of Single Super-phosphate(SSP) and other phosphatic fertilizers seems to be on an expansion zoom with increasing PAN India presence starting new plants in South India. The Group currently has manufacturing capacity of 826000 MT per annum of SSP Fertilizer, 165000 MT per annum of NPK and 5000 MT of Magnesium Sulphate catering to about 18% of the SSP fertilizer demand in the country. The company have production plants at Udaipur & Kota in Rajasthan, Baroda in Gujarat, Pali in Maharashtra, Nimrani in Madhya Pradesh & Hospet in Karnataka. The company markets its SSP under a very strong brand name called “Double Horse”.
Financials : The company is witnessing a complete turnaround this FY. The company posted a trailing EPS of 3.84 with a topline of 204 crores and net Profit of 6.5 crores. The recent Government decision to deregulate non urea fertilizer prices coupled with company’s massive expansion plan has an exponential effect on company’s sales performance. LPL continues to exhibit exponential growth declaring prolific June10 Q results – an EPS of 4 with bottom-line of about 6 crores. The growth story does not stops here, the company in its latest Sept Q results posted an EPS of 5.28 with bottom-line of 7.7 crores. Riding on special attention by Govt. of India to fertilizer industry, this company seems heading for a forward annualized EPS of atleast 20 this FY. At current price of 74 Rs – Liberty Phosphates is available at a PE of less than 4. The stock is a IMMEDIATE BUY!!
Positives – The company has a very strong SHP which has increased from 34% to about 52% in last 6 years – awesome stats !!
- Paid up equity capital has not increased in last 2 years.
- Most of non urea fertilizer stocks (see my recommendation on Rama Phosphates) are on a boom due to Govt. deregulation on non urea fertilizers.
- The company just declared dividend and one can expect a rally in stock price.
Negatives – There are few strong competitors in the organized sector.
Conclusion : The stock is already on a rally and has reached 72-80 levels. Time to RUSH :) to buy LIBERTY PHOSPATE LIMITED at current levels before FII/DII start increasing their stake. Make use of the fertilizer boom cycle, buy this stock to get 250 – 300% returns in 1 yrs time visualizing an EPS of 20+ this FY.

Thursday, October 14, 2010

Stocks Performance Update - Q3 2010

                 My blog has now become 2 months old. Thanks for overwhleming response by you readers & I look forward for sustained following. Lets have a look on the performance of my recommended stocks so far ...

ScripRecommended price(INR)High attained(INR)CMP(INR) %change
Simran farms558278 +42%
Manjushree Technopack 6810198 +44%
Rama Phosphates 789494 +21%
TT limited384342 +11%
Orient Ceramics 8510494 +11%
Poddar Pigments 485755 +15%
Satvahana Ispat 505452 +4%
Dujodwala Products 565854 -4%
  Legends:
  strong - keep adding on dips
  hold and continue

Sunday, October 10, 2010

Rama Phosphates Limited - IMMEDIATE BUY !!

Business : Today I bring up a leading fertilizer player – RAMA PHOSPATES LIMITED. Started in Indore 25 years ago, RPL operates primarily in two areas a) Fertilizer and b) Edible oil. The Company, being one of the largest producer in its field, is engaged in manufacturing phosphatic fertilizers viz. Single Super Phosphate, Mixed fertilizers namely NPK and Chemicals like Sulphuric Acid, Oleum etc. RPL has its biggest markets across various states especially Gujarat, Rajasthan, MP, Karnataka, Maharashtra & Chhattisgarh under popular brand name of Girnar and Suryaphool. RPL has 3 major production units across the country:
1)     Indore Fertilizer Plant – capacity of 165000 MT of SSP & 102000 MT of Sulphuric acid
            Indore Oil division – 165000 MT of edible oil
2)     Pune Fertilizer Plant - 165000 MT of SSP and 81600 MT of Sulphuric Acid
3)     Udaipur Fertilizer Plant - 132000 MT of SSP
Icing on the cake, Rama Phosphates is currently on an expansion drive – it has obtained consent from Rajasthan State Pollution Control Board for enhancing its production Capacity of Single Super phosphates at its Udaipur Unit from existing 132000 MT per year to 181000 MT per year. The Company shall commence its enhanced approved production during current FY.
Financials : The company has posted a trailing EPS of 20.29 with a topline of 134 crores and Profit of 11.27 crores. The company continues to exhibit exponential growth declaring prolific June10 Q results – an EPS of 25.95 with bottom-line of 14.4 crores. Going forward, considering overall fertilizer sector boom, RPL expansion spree & special attention by Govt. of India to agriculture industry, this company seems heading for a forward annualized EPS of atleast 30 this FY. At current price of 77 Rs – you have only one option – to buy RPL which is available at a PE of less than 3. The stock is a IMMEDIATE BUY!!
Positives – The company has a strong SHP which ranged between 45% to 41% in last 8 years – sound record.
-        Paid up equity capital has not increased in last 2 years.
Negatives – There are few strong competitors in the organized sector.
Conclusion : The stock is already on a run and has reached 75-82 levels. Time to HURRY UP J to buy RAMA PHOSPATES LIMITED at current levels before DII start increasing their stake. Beyond doubt, this stock has the potential to double/triple in next 8 months duration visualizing an EPS of 30+ this FY. On a serious note, if no manipulation is happening inside the company as can be felt with sound SHP, the stock is a long term hold and I can foresee surprise jump in stock price in a year time.